Author: Hotcoin Research
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.95 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.1% at $1.74 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $318.4 billion, decreasing by 0.28% in the last 7 days, marking another week of negative growth for stablecoins, with USDT comprising 60.54%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose, including: BTC down 1.4% in 7 days, ETH down 1.89% in 7 days, SOL down 2.84% in 7 days, NIGHT up 22.03% in 7 days, H up 28.88% in 7 days.
This week, US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $589 million; US Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $80.3 million.
Market Forecast (December 29 - January 2):
The current RSI index is 51.46 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed Index is 22 (lower than last week, generally in the fear zone), and the Altcoin Season Index is 37 (neutral, unchanged from last week).
The core driver of recent market movements is leverage unwinding amid thin liquidity:
Event-driven: Around Christmas Eve (December 24), the market flash-crashed without major negative news, with Bitcoin plunging $2,300 within 45 minutes, triggering over $66 million in long liquidations. This revealed that during holidays, market depth is insufficient, making it highly susceptible to sharp volatility from large orders or leverage liquidations.
Capital Flows: As mentioned before, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continued to record net outflows before the holiday, weakening institutional buying support and making the market more fragile.
Technical Analysis: The three major assets are currently oscillating above key support zones. Whether BTC can hold $85,000, ETH can stabilize around $2,900, and SOL can maintain above $120 are key to determining if the market can stop falling.
BTC Core Range: $83,000-89,000
ETH Core Range: $2,750-3,050
SOL Core Range: $115-130
As shown in the chart, the current Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is 1.53. In a typical bull market environment, this value is in the low range; if in a bear market, it is at a neutral level, far from the most panicked bear market bottom.
The macro backdrop for this market cycle has fundamentally shifted: Cryptocurrency is transitioning from being restricted by many countries globally to gaining legislative recognition in mainstream markets like the US; market dominance has also gradually shifted from early miner groups to large Wall Street institutions.
Facing this new market structure, we should neither simply apply the old "four-year cycle" theory nor blindly延续 bull market thinking. Looking ahead to 2026, the market will intertwine danger and opportunity:
The danger lies in the fact that, from a historical cycle perspective, the traditional bear market window has already opened.
The opportunity lies in the high probability of the Fed entering a rate-cutting cycle, with global liquidity expected to continue flowing in; simultaneously, asset management firms and listed companies continue to accumulate, providing solid structural buying support for the market.
Therefore, even if the market enters a correction, its duration may be shortened, and the bottom will find strong support. Based on this, we boldly predict that the bear market bottom price range for this cycle will be between $50,000 and $60,000.
Understanding the Present
Review of the Week's Major Events
1. On December 21, regarding the "50 million USDT phishing attack" incident, the Ethereum Community Foundation posted on X platform, calling for an end to the practice of truncating addresses with ellipses (e.g., 0xbaf4b1aF...B6495F8b5). Address information needs to be displayed in full, hiding the middle part of addresses creates unnecessary risks. Currently, some UI options provided by部分 wallets and block explorers also have security issues, which can actually be resolved;
2. On December 24, according to market data, US stocks continued their rally, with the S&P 500 index approaching 6900 points, less than 10 points away from its historical closing record. Additionally, the Dow Jones rose 0.18% intraday, and the Nasdaq rose 0.27%;
3. On December 24, this Friday, Bitcoin options worth approximately $23.6 billion are set to expire, marking the largest options expiration day in Bitcoin's history. Analysis indicates this expiration is extremely large and overall bullish. The max pain point (the price level at which option buyers lose the most and sellers gain the most at expiration) is $96,000, which will reinforce the upward price trend;
4. On December 24, according to a Cointelegraph report, Aave founder Stani Kulechov recently faced质疑 for spending over $10 million to buy AAVE tokens, with some crypto community members believing this was to increase his voting power in a key governance proposal;
5. On December 25, USD1 market cap突破 $3 billion, reaching $3.011 billion, a 24-hour increase of 7.68%. Previous news, Binance launched a USD1 savings product with an APY of up to 20%;
6. On December 26, throughout 2025, mentions related to blockchain in US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings surged, reaching about 8000 in August and remaining high in November. Bitcoin-related mentions dominated this growth,占据 the largest share of filing activity, with Bitcoin spot ETF filings and amendments rising. Traditional asset management companies also continued to expand their cryptocurrency products in 2025.
Macro Economy
1. On December 24, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Dec 20 were 214K, vs. expectation of 224K;
2. On December 23, according to CME "FedWatch" data, after today's US macro data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points in January next year has dropped to 13.3%, with the probability of holding rates steady at 86.7%. Last week, the probability of a January rate cut had risen to 31%. The US Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, adjusted for inflation, recorded 4.3%, US GDP growth surged, marking the strongest growth rate since Q4 2023. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady until March next year is 54.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 bps cut is 40.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 bps cut is 4.9%.
ETFs
According to statistics, during December 22-26, US Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $589 million; as of December 26, GBTC (Grayscale) has had a total outflow of $25.14 billion and currently holds $14.504 billion, IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $67.652 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is: $116.673 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $80.3 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Project Progress
1. Chain game ChronoForge tweeted that it will cease operations on December 30, citing "significant headwinds" including funding shortages, which forced the founders to fund development out of pocket since July and lay off 80% of staff. "After discussions with the Rift Foundation, we believe it is unsustainable to continue operations for the game or the token. ChronoForge will cease service on December 30, 2025";
2. WLFI announced the BNB ecosystem USD1 zero-fee activity has been extended to December 31. Users can transfer, withdraw, and bridge USDC and USD1 with zero fees on CEXs, wallets, and cross-chain bridges;
3. BYEX (Baiyi) is即将停运, users must transfer assets out before December 31;
4. Rabby Wallet announced that the backend API for Rabby Desktop will cease service on December 31. This change will not affect user assets, which remain完全安全, and can be accessed via the Rabby extension;
5. StarkWare launched a $1 million OP_CAT research fund to finance research into the pros and cons of activating OP_CAT on Bitcoin. The submission deadline for research proposals is January 1, 2025.
Important Events
1. The fourth round of FTX compensation is expected to launch in January 2026, with the eligibility confirmation deadline possibly in December, but the specific time awaits official announcement;
2. Turkmenistan's crypto asset regulation bill will take effect on January 1, which will help attract investment and promote digitization. The bill covers the regulatory framework for the creation, storage, issuance, use, and circulation of virtual assets within Turkmenistan and clarifies their legal and economic status;
3. The Basel Committee plans to implement a bank crypto asset risk disclosure framework on January 1, 2026, including a set of standardized public forms and templates covering bank crypto asset risks. These disclosures aim to improve information availability and support market discipline;
4. Switzerland's bill for the automatic exchange of tax information covering crypto assets is expected to take effect on January 1, 2026. This expansion means financial institutions will be required to collect and report client information related to crypto assets;
5. The UK government will implement new crypto tax rules from January 2026, cracking down on tax avoidance. According to the guidance, crypto exchanges operating in the UK must begin collecting detailed transaction records and complete information for all UK clients. HMRC will use the collected data to cross-check users' tax returns to ensure tax compliance, with violators facing sanctions. Additionally, the UK's new guidelines align with the OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) to increase transparency in the digital asset market;
6. HM Revenue & Customs requires crypto companies to report every customer transaction from 2026 onwards. Users who fail to comply or report inaccurately may face fines of up to £300 ($398.4) per user;
7. On January 3, the US will release Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Dec 27 (in thousands).
Token Unlocks
1. Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.47 million tokens on December 28, worth approximately $10.7 million,占流通量的 1.73%;
2. Kamino (KMNO) will unlock 230 million tokens on December 30, worth approximately $11.69 million,占流通量的 5.35%;
3. EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on January 1, worth approximately $14.31 million,占流通量的 9.74%;
4. Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on January 2, worth approximately $8.64 million,占流通量的 0.56%;
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. We dissect market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; with our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (dual screening by AI + experts), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial costs. Every week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face through live streams, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
